Bernstein flags 787 wiring issue, early A350 delay

New production issues related to wiring present yet another challenge to the 787 program and threaten further delivery delays, according to a new report from Bernstein Research, which also claimed that the early stage of the A350 program is behind schedule.

According to the analysts, Boeing is moving to a new model for wiring beginning with the 13th 787, while airplanes 7 through 12 are being rewired. ATWOnline confirmed the new wiring standard with a Boeing source. Dubbed "Net Change 5," it is aimed at reducing weight and improving maintainability.

"We understand that wiring that has been installed on airplanes 7 through 12 (or sections of airplanes 11 and 12) is now being completely removed to enable rewiring. . .which reduces our confidence in Boeing's ability to meet delivery date goals, although we see it as positive that Boeing has stretched the time between first flight and delivery to 12 months," Bernstein stated in the report.

It does believe the 787 will achieve first flight before year end but warned that "substantial challenges remain as the program heads toward first delivery [to ANA], planned at the end of 2010." Owing to uncertainty among customers, the manufacturer has suffered 83 787 cancellations this year (ATWOnline, Sept. 30).

While the program is running 2.5 years behind the original schedule, its likely main competitor, the A350, is off to a slow start, Bernstein claimed. Citing information from suppliers, it said, "the A350 schedule is beginning to slip at an early stage. . .and is now five to six months behind schedule." It noted that Airbus believes the time can be made up.

Since the 787 is so delay-plagued, Bernstein views Airbus as having an advantage in the battle for sales despite its early stage delay, explaining, "The company is learning from Boeing's experiences on the 787 and has pursued a more conservative design strategy." Nevertheless, Airbus's challenges are "still significant, with constrained engineering resources, a new composite material, and a new supplier network," the report stated.

Bernstein predicted that both companies will "face challenges in developing stretched versions of their base airplanes, with weight reduction likely to be a key issue." It noted that while the 787-9 should be the most popular version of the 787 family, the interval between 787-8 first delivery and 787-9 first delivery has moved from two to three years. It said Airbus will "likely have similar issues in weight reduction to move from the A350-900 to the A350-1000, although they are not yet as clear."

by Geoffrey Thomas

Originally published 2 Oct 2009 at: http://feeds.atwonline.com/~r/AtwDailyNews/~3/rUvM6z_UVS8/story.html