ROUTES EUROPE: Opening Time in Poland

Poland is in a unique position in Europe. While other European countries are contending with tensions between local communities that are hostile to any sort of airport development and governments that are trying to accommodate forecasted levels of air traffic, Poland is on the brink of adding real capacity to its air traffic system by opening two new airports.

EU accession gave the Polish economy a vital stimulus that has remained in place to this day. Growth in real GDP in Poland has been a consistent three percentage points above the average for the 27 EU countries. With air traffic demand widely accepted as a link to economic growth, it is hardly surprising that Poland has seen traffic growth well above European averages.

By 2010, the number of passengers passing through Polish airports was 20.6 million, up from 10 million just five years earlier. This was despite Poland suffering its share of economic doldrums in 2009. This growth is expected to continue, with the Polish CAA forecasting that the number of passengers passing through Polish airports will continue growing at an average rate of 6.4 per cent per annum for the next 10 years, and at 4.4 per cent per annum thereafter until 2030. By then, the Polish market is expected to have reached around 75 million passengers.

With such rapid growth has come a dramatic change in the structure of aviation in the country. Some of the established players have struggled to keep pace with the new market dynamics, while new entrants have eagerly sought out the opportunities. The most striking difference since 2004 is the shift towards a market that is comfortable with low-cost carriers (LCCs). In 2005, LCCs carried just 33 per cent of all scheduled traffic but now they carry 56 per cent. Together, Ryanair and Wizz Air handle nearly 50 per cent of all traffic in Poland and now both rival national carrier LOT Polish Airlines in size. In contrast, LOT has seen its market share fall to 23 per cent. While LCCs have stimulated air travel through lower fares and new destinations, and seen their scheduled traffic grow by 194 per cent since 2005, LOT’s traffic volumes have only increased by 25 per cent.

Alongside this shift towards LCCs has been the strengthening of regional airports as they have worked with the carriers to meet the needs of the new market environment. Traffic levels at Warsaw have hardly changed, while regional airports have competed to attract new entrants to the market. Airports such as Bydgoszcz, Gdansk, Lodz, Poznan, Rzeszow and Wroclaw have all seen passenger volumes grow by more than 200 per cent since 2004, and in some cases by much more as Ryanair, Wizz Air and easyJet have sought to make their mark.

It is against this backdrop of rising demand for air travel, public acceptance of regional airports and a constrained Warsaw Airport, that the environment is right for new airport development. The two new airports are scheduled to open in 2012 – Lublin, a greenfield airport development, plans to open between May and June 2012, while Modlin Airport is aiming to be open in time for the UEFA 2012 European Championship football competition, which starts in June of that year.

Development of the airport at Warsaw Modlin, located on the site of a former military airfield, has not been without problems and it has taken many years to gain all the approvals and there have been numerous false starts. The airport, situated about 35km north west of Warsaw city centre, aims to complement the existing, congested Warsaw Chopin Airport, positioning itself as a regional gateway and served by low-cost carriers and charter operators.

With 24-hour operations, and the possibility of a 30-minute journey from the purpose-built on-airport railway station into Warsaw, the airport aims to combine convenience for passengers with low-cost services for airlines. Traffic forecasts for the airport, prepared by Airport Strategy and Marketing (ASM), envisage five million passengers by 2021.

Meanwhile, the development of Lublin Airport is indicative of a region hoping to emulate the recent success of regional airports in Poland. The city of Lublin has a population of 400,000 people, and as a university town has a student population in excess of 100,000, but currently it lacks an airport. Passengers travelling by air have to endure a three-hour journey by road to reach Warsaw Airport, so the construction of Lublin Airport is a welcome development for the region. Furthermore, it is anticipated that it will be a stimulus for economic development and inbound tourism, while providing direct access for Lublin’s diaspora located overseas.

Sustainability is central to the vision for Lublin Airport. The airport’s management team is committed to creating a facility that reflects the needs of airlines while establishing routes to destinations where sufficient demand exists. It is scheduled to open in May or June next year and offers opportunities for charter, low-cost and full-service airlines to destinations in Europe and beyond. Again, work undertaken by ASM suggests that by 2016 up to one million passengers could be using Lublin Airport.

You can read more in this story in the latest edition of Routes News.

A copy of the world air service development magazine is also in all delegate bags at Routes Europe and there are extra copies on the World Routes stand (S7).