Upcoming political machinations could have a major impact on the global aviation industry, a foreign currency expert has told Routes Europe.

Trevor Charsley, senior advisory, Associated Foreign Exchange (AFEX), said that businesses in the sector need to keep close watch on the French election and stronger dollar.

"“Donald Trump has announced new US tax cuts, but they've missed out border tax. If a border tax is included that could increase the strength of the dollar by 25 percent," he said.

Even more relevant is the US effect on global oil prices, which Charsley said may remain low in the near term, contrary to many experts' opinion.

"The more the oil price goes up, the more the US is going to pump, so we may actually see lower oil prices in the medium term," he said.

The French election also threatens further volatility and uncertainty, he said on the eve of the first round which saw Macron and Le Pen progress to the final vote..

"If Macron doesn't get through to the second round in the French election, and Le Pen and Mélenchon go through to the second round... wow - the euro is going to be struggling," he said. "And if Mélenchon gets into power... expect to be paying 90 percent tax."

"Be aware of exchange rate risks when planning routes because 'you only discover who is swimming naked when the tide goes out'."

"You've got the routes, you understand everything - but don't forget to put in a nice margin for oil price changes and currency fluctuations."