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ASM Global Route Development

  • Type: Informa

Ask the Experts: What will be the long term impact of Brexit?

Nigel Mayes, Senior Vice President, Consulting & Product Development, ASM discusses the impact of Brexit on the aviation industry.

The initial news of Brexit sent a shockwave not only through Europe, but also the wider global economy.  For the UK the outlook was bleak, the value of the Pound against the Dollar dropped immediately 11 percent (and has broadly stayed there), a number of airline share prices tumbled easyJet 28 percent and British Airways 30 percent, some European carriers have experienced a significant fall in revenues, and IATA talked about the long term impact of Brexit to UK passenger numbers being 3-5 percent by 2020. 

However three months on and the UK economy has recovered from the early shock and showing signs of stability, employment and consumer confidence bounced back for August.  The question is does this send a more positive message to the global economy, that global consumer demand and the demand for air travel can withstand these shocks. It certainly appears that the demand for air travel will continue to grow unabated and any impact of Brexit will only be realised in the long term; we might never be able to understand the true implications given the other factors at play.