Both Boeing and Airbus have released their long term forecasts of passenger and cargo traffic, as well as regional-jet manufacturers, Bombardier and Embraer. Routesonline are taking a look at the long term forecasts to assess the potential outlook for each region over the next 20 years.
Africa has the world’s fastest urbanisation rate, and as a result, air traffic to, from and within the region is steadily increasing, as is its need for more aircraft.
Flights between Africa and Europe account for almost 40 percent of the region’s air travel, but is projected to compose a smaller share over the next 20 years as flights between Africa and the Middle East and intra-Africa traffic both gain market share, according to Boeing.
Overall air traffic to and from Africa is expected to grow by about six percent annually over the next 20 years, as new airplane technology increases efficiency, and opens new international routes from high-altitude hot airports in Africa.
Boeing has predicted a total of 1,170 new airplanes will be delivered within the region, the majority of which will be single-aisle airplanes which will make up 830 (71 percent) of the total orders. According to the aircraft manufacturer, 22 percent of deliveries will b small widebody aircraft, while medium widebodies and regional jets will both make up three percent of overall deliveries within the Africa region over a twenty-year period.
Airbus has predicted that Africa will see a 5.3 percent growth in revenue passenger kilometres (RPK) over the next twenty years, higher than the overall world figure which is predicted to be 4.6 percent.
Africa’s urban population is projected to grow 3.1 percent annually over the next 25 years according to Boeing, with urban growth outpacing the growth of the rural population. The result will be an increase to 50 percent urbanisation, with African cities adding more than 500 million people – twice as many as rural areas over the same period.
In terms of business and regional aircraft, Bombardier has predicted a total of 275 new aircraft to be delivered to Africa over the next ten years. Fleet size has more than doubled in the past ten years in the region, with the average economic growth expected to increase by 4.8 percent per year.
Embraer on the other hand has predicted a 4.5 percent increase in terms of GDP within the region between 2015 and 2034. The jet manufacturer has forecasted a total of 240 70 to 130-seat jets for the region over the 20-year period, as well as 140 turboprops – which makes up for 7 percent of the overall global forecast. Finally, Embraer has predicted that the region will require just 2 percent of its overall orders for 130 to 210-seat jets, or a total of 400.
Africa’s economy has grown at a rate of more than 4.5 percent per year over the past 10 years despite the global recession. As a result, two-thirds of the countries in Africa are now classified as middle income or higher, according to World Bank.