Analysis:’s latest UK addition

ASM’s VP consulting Aidan Mooney assesses the potential market demand for one of’s new routes from Bristol Airport in the UK. plans to open its 10th UK base during the summer 2021 season, stationing three aircraft at Bristol Airport (BRS) in the South West of England. The leisure carrier intends to operate flights to 33 destinations, with 29 routes set to be served in summer and 11 in winter 2021/22.

A total of 450,000 seats are now on sale for next summer, with the airline’s inaugural flight scheduled to depart for Lanzarote (ACE) on April 1. CEO Steve Heapy said the carrier knows demand exists from BRS as it has been “listening to customers and independent travel agents in the region for some time.”

Taking a look at one of the planned destinations—to Naples (NAP) in Italy—we wanted to assess what the market potential might be for this new service. For this we used ASM’s Airport Catchment Analyser tool to identify the traffic traveling to and from Naples to within a 40-mi. radius of Bristol Airport in 2019.

In the absence of direct air service and no notable indirect flow of traffic, it could be thought that there would be no demand to operate a direct service. However, the Airport Catchment Analyser tool showed a total market in 2019 of 42,000 two-way passengers. This consisted of 23,000 resident outbound passengers and 19,000 visitor inbound passengers.

What the Airport Catchment Analyser identified is the majority of the traffic—more than 80% in total—traveled in excess of 75 mi. over land to use a London airport for their journey, despite either originating or staying within 40 miles of BRS. 

It is likely that, which has existing operations from Birmingham (BHX) and London Stansted (STN) to Verona (VRN), could see some demand from the South West region on existing booking data, but would not have sight of the full market demand that is utilizing easyJet, Ryanair and British Airways from BHX, Cardiff (CWL), London Gatwick (LGW) and STN.

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ASM's Airport Catchment Analyser is the one tool that can provide understanding on where your traffic volumes are coming from. Discover how to interpret both visitor and resident traffic through detailed examples, and find where you are 'winning' the market share with competitor airports and where they are taking share from your airports. To find out more, download ASM's Airport Catchment Analytics whitepaper or contact a member of the team.

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Photo credit: Bristol Airport via Twitter