UK hurdles to Spain travel raise fears for European aviation recovery
Meanwhile, Ryanair's recent quarterly results highlight two big disconnects: between an airline's filed schedules and its announced capacity guidance; and between the pace of return of capacity and demand.
Based on filed schedules, Europe's total capacity is 14.6 million seats for the week commencing 27-Jul-2020, the highest since mid Mar-2020. The year-on-year reduction of 60.3% is the narrowest since mid March.
Three regions have deeper cuts than Europe, while two are bouncing back more quickly. Latin America has the deepest cut, down by 74.5%, followed by Africa's 71.5% cut and the Middle East's drop of 68.6%. Seat numbers have been cut by 56.1% in North America and by 42.0% in Asia Pacific (still the only region at more than 50% of 2019 levels).
Capacity derived from filed schedules projects European seat numbers at 51% of 2019 levels in Aug-2020 and 73% in Sep-2020. Even before the increased hurdles to UK-Spain travel, let alone any more widespread restrictions, these numbers are ahead of likely capacity plans and far in excess of likely demand.
- Europe: 14.6 million seats vs 36.8 million a year ago – down 60%. Again, only Asia Pacific and North America Africa have narrower cuts.
- Future schedules are trimmed again this week, but there will be more cuts.
- Ryanair illustrates disconnect between filed schedules and announced guidance and between capacity and demand.
- The UK has reimposed restrictions on Spain travel, raising fears that restrictions could rise once more in other parts of Europe too.
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