Airframers accelerate: 2025 marks a turning point – but not the take-off airlines had hoped for
After years of turbulence, the global airframe manufacturing sector is finally finding clearer skies in 2025 - but the climb is proving shallower than many airlines had banked on.
Airbus and Boeing have lifted deliveries to their highest level since the COVID-19 pandemic, yet persistent supply chain knots and uneven industrial recoveries mean the long-awaited surge in output remains elusive.
With just over 1,060 aircraft handed over by Oct-2025, both OEMs are gearing up for a year-end sprint to meet ambitious production targets and ease the delivery frustrations of operators hungry for capacity renewal.
Beneath the headline numbers, however, the story is one of contrasting trajectories: Airbus pressing ahead with measured ramp-ups across its narrowbody and widebody lines, and Boeing striving to stabilise its manufacturing ecosystem after years of upheaval.
Meanwhile, Embraer - often overlooked in the glare of its larger rivals - quietly posts its strongest backlog in a decade, underscoring shifting dynamics in the global supply landscape.
Summary
- Aircraft deliveries in 2025 are up compared with previous years, but output growth remains below pre-pandemic peaks and airline expectations.
- Airbus and Boeing delivered a combined 1,060 commercial aircraft by Oct-2025, with both manufacturers planning a year-end production surge to meet ambitious annual targets.
- Airbus is experiencing modest production increases, particularly in the A220 and A320neo lines, but continues to face supply chain challenges; especially with engines and cabin equipment.
- Boeing has significantly increased deliveries year-on-year as it recovers from regulatory and production setbacks, but ongoing labour disputes and quality control issues still impact its output.
- Embraer is quietly raising its production, achieving its strongest order backlog in a decade and targeting up to 85 commercial aircraft deliveries in 2025.
- Supply chain improvements, especially in engine availability, are helping OEMs ramp up output, but persistent bottlenecks and workforce challenges continue to limit the pace of recovery.
Aircraft deliveries are up in 2025 - but not as much as had been hoped for
Airbus and Boeing have reported their deliveries for the year to Oct-2025, with a combined 1,060 commercial aircraft between them going to customers.
After a difficult start to the year, OEMs have been steadily raising output.
With supply chain issues gradually being resolved - even if some bottlenecks persist - OEMs are well placed for a late year production sprint to bring annual deliveries up to their highest point since before the COVID-19 pandemic.
Based on historical averages and declared production plans, the two main Western OEMs are due to deliver around 1,400 commercial aircraft between them.
While this is well below the peak seen in 2018, it will be a welcome recovery for airlines that had been frustrated with OEM's inability to raise output to meet their delivery schedules.
Western OEM annual aircraft deliveries (2000-2025F*)
Source: CAPA - Centre for Aviation.
*Forecast based on OEM annual targets and production rates.
Airbus production up modestly, with sprint needed to meet full-year target
Airbus has delivered 585 aircraft for the year to the end of Oct-2025.
Deliveries comprised 66 A220s, 456 A320neo family aircraft, 23 A330neo aircraft and 40 A350s.
Compared with the same period in 2024, this is only a modest increase.
Airbus had an unusually slow start to the year: delivering just 136 aircraft in 1Q2025 (against 143 in 1Q2024). The manufacturer attributed this to ongoing supply chain bottlenecks, citing engines (specifically citing CFM International), aircraft cabin equipment and lavatories as major issues.
A220 production has gone up 25%, although this is an increase of just 13 airframes compared to the same point in 2024. Airbus is aiming to raise output to 14 per month, although it has eased the steepness of the planned production ramp-up.
Airbus CEO Guillame Faury announced during Oct-2025 that a new interim target of 12 A220s per month by mid-2026 has been established, with the plan to aim for 14 per month beyond that.
A320neo output growth has been disappointing - up just 2.7% (an increase of 12 airframes), with deliveries averaging just under 46 per month.
However, plans to hit its 2025 targets will not be helped by a quality problem with fuselage panels on the Airbus A320neo family that is currently further slowing deliveries of aircraft, revealed by Reuters on 1-Dec-2025. Airbus confirmed it had "identified a quality issue affecting a limited number of A320 metal panels," and that the "source of the issue has been identified, contained and all newly produced panels conform to all requirements".
READ MORE on this story via our Aviation Week Network AWIN premium channel: Airbus Slows A320neo Deliveries Over Fuselage Panel Checks
Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury told Reuters on 2-Dec-2025 that the company is assessing the impact of the issue "in the hours and days" to come.
Airbus monthly narrowbody deliveries (Jan-2024 to Oct-2025)
Source: Airbus, CAPA - Centre for Aviation.
Airbus remains committed to its production ramp-up to build output to 75 per month by 2027.
Two new A320new assembly lines in the US and China formally opened during Oct-2025, taking total lines to 10. Once fully up to speed, these are expected to add capacity for up to 14 extra aircraft per month (six in Tianjin and eight in Mobile).
A330neo deliveries fell by one aircraft, with Airbus intending to keep production stable at four per month and then slowly build to five per month by 2029.
A350 deliveries are up by two airframes, with Airbus still committed to a 12 per month production rate by 2028.
Airbus monthly widebody deliveries (Jan-24 to Oct-25)
Source: Airbus, CAPA - Centre for Aviation.
During its 3Q2025 results announcement Airbus confirmed that it is maintaining its target of delivering "around" 820 aircraft for the full year (up from the 766 it delivered in 2024). Meeting this target would require delivery of 235 aircraft over the last two months of the year.
This would be a record stretch for the OEM, although it is within the realms of possibility.
Airbus' deliveries are typically weighted towards the end of the year. The OEM managed to deliver 216 aircraft in the final two months of the year in 2018 and 2019, as well as 207 aircraft in the final two months of 2024.
Crucially, engine supply chain issues appear to be improving.
In early Nov-2025 Pratt & Whitney President of Commercial Engines Rick Deurloo reported that the OEM was already delivering engines destined for 2026 production, having already supplied enough engines to meet Airbus' 2025 delivery targets. The Pratt & Whitney PW1100G-JM is one of the two engine options for the A320neo family, while the PW1500G engine is the sole powerplant for the A220.
Its narrowbody OEM rival CFM International, a 50:50 JV between GE Aerospace and Safran, is also making progress. In Jul-2025 GE Aerospace CEO Larry Culp reported deliveries of LEAP-family engines will grow 15-20% year-on-year, which would imply around 1,618 to 1,688 engines delivered.
Safran reported 3Q2025 LEAP engine deliveries were up 40% year-on-year and 25% quarter-to-quarter. Deliveries over the first nine months of the year rose 21%, to 1,240 units. The French firm's 3Q2025 results announcement includes an assumption that LEAP deliveries will increase 20% for the full year.
Safran/CFM International quarterly engine deliveries (1Q2020 to 3Q2025)
Source: Safran, CAPA - Centre for Aviation.
Improving engine supply may help Airbus with its late-year delivery push.
Airbus reported in early Jun-2025 that it had a backlog of 40 completed airframes which were waiting on engine deliveries. By the end of Jul-2025 Mr Faury reported that the number of 'gliders' waiting for engines had grown to 60 airframes.
Boeing production increasing as OEM gets its house in order
Boeing delivered a total of 475 commercial aircraft for the year to Oct-2025 (along with another 18 aircraft derived from commercial designs).
This is up from 294 for the same period in 2024 (+61.6% year-on-year), after Boeing suffered another series of production dislocations during the year.
Boeing aircraft deliveries (Jan-2024 to Oct-2025)
Source: Boeing, CAPA - Centre for Aviation.
In Jan-2024 the US FAA forced Boeing to cap 737 MAX production at 38 per month, and halted plans to increase output, following the inflight failure of a door plug on an Alaska Airlines 737 MAX 9 on 05-Jan-2024. The FAA instituted extra onsite safety inspector presence at Boeing's facility in Renton, as well as the Spirit AeroSystems aerostructures facility in Wichita.
Boeing 737 MAX monthly production (Jan-2018 to Oct-2025)
Source: Boeing, CAPA - Centre for Aviation.
Production of the Boeing 787 was also slowed by increased regulatory scrutiny and additional inspections. This followed a series of revelations in 1H2024 that certain quality assurance measures had not been followed, and that some 787s had improperly installed fasteners, prompting a separate FAA investigation and further checks.
Production line issues were capped by industrial action, with the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAMAW) starting a strike in mid Sep-2024. This slowed output over the final four months of 2024.
Boeing is slowly pulling itself out of the holes it has managed to dig, although the OEM still has a long way to go before it manages to rebuild production to where it wants it to be.
In May-2025 the FAA renewed Boeing's Organization Designation Authorization approval. This allows the OEM to perform certification functions on the FAA's behalf, such as issuing airworthiness and production certifications.
At the end of Sep-2025 the FAA formally reauthorised Boeing to issue airworthiness certificates for some 737 MAX and 787 aircraft. Boeing had been prevented from issuing airworthiness certificates for the 737 MAX since 2019, and for the 787 since 2022.
In Oct-2025 the FAA allow Boeing to raise 737 MAX output 42 aircraft per month. Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg reported in Oct-2025 that the OEM plans to raise 737 MAX output to the new cap during 2026. Beyond that, production rates are expected to be stepped up in blocks of five per month.
Boeing 787 output is due to be raised from the current seven per month to eight by late 2025, or early 2026. From here, Boeing plans to reach a rate of 10 per month by the end of 2026.
From here, Boeing is undertaking a dramatic expansion at its 787 final assembly line (FAL) in South Carolina. Now the sole 787 production location - after Boeing rationalised 787 production and ended work at Renton in 2021 - the FAL has capacity for 10 aircraft per month. Ground was broken on a second FAL at South Carolina in Nov-2025, which will double the production capacity at the campus.
The mess at Spirit AeroSystems is also slowly being resolved.
Segments of the aerostructures manufacturer are being reabsorbed into Boeing - the company was spun off in 2005 - following an all-stock transaction valued at USD4.7 billion, while Airbus is also taking control of certain segments and businesses that supply it with aerostructures. The EU finally granted approval of the deal in mid Oct-2025, following with competition concessions.
Spirit AeroSystems: quarterly aircraft shipset deliveries (1Q2019 to 3Q2025)
Source: Spirit AeroSystems, CAPA - Centre for Aviation.
While production systems inside Boeing and at major airframe and engine suppliers are being put in order, Boeing's relationship with segments of its workforce remains difficult.
The IAMAW called another major strike in early Aug-2025, with more than 3,200 workers at the OEM's defence production locations in Missouri and Illinois walking off the job for 101 days.
A new contract was eventually ratified in Nov-2025, but it required multiple rounds of negotiation, and Boeing has further angered unions by moving to hire replacements for striking workers during the negotiations.
Boeing has also been sparring with the Society of Professional Engineering Employees in Aerospace (SPEEA), the union representing technical and engineering workers at the company.
SPEEA alleged in early 2025 that Boeing had preferentially laid off union workers before some contractors and other non-union workers, in violation of collective bargaining agreements. Boeing eventually agreed to rehire some union workers, after SPEEA threatened to file a charge relating to unfair labour practices at the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB).
Another fight with unions is potentially brewing at Spirit AeroSystems, with the existing contract with the Wichita Technical and Professional Unit due to expire at the end of Jan-2026.
IAMAW has raised concerns about whether Boeing will honour the contract signed with Spirit in 2023, which is due to expire in 2027.
Embraer quietly raising output with backlog hitting decade-long high
While the larger OEM have their ups and downs, Brazilian aircraft maker Embraer has quietly been raising its own output.
The regional jet make delivered 46 aircraft over the first nine months of 2025 - three E190-E2s, 24 E195-E2s and 19 E175s - up from 42 over the same period in 2024.
3Q2025 deliveries were 20 aircraft, comprising seven E175s, two E190-E2s and 11 E195-E2s.
Embraer quarterly aircraft deliveries (1Q2019 to 3Q2025)
Source: Embraer, CAPA - Centre for Aviation.
Embraer is confident that it will meet its target of delivering 77 to 85 commercial aircraft in 2025, against 73 deliveries in 2024. This leaves Embraer needing to deliver between 31 and 39 aircraft over 4Q2025.
The final quarter of the year typically accounts for around 40% of Embraer's production (with spikes in recent years, thanks to supply chain issues). The OEM has been working on a production levelling plan to 'smooth' its deliveries through the year, which is starting to show some impacts.
Embraer: commercial aircraft quarterly delivery share (1Q2016 to 3Q2025*)
Source: Embraer, CAPA - Centre for Aviation.
*Embraer projections for 2025, based on midpoint delivery target to 81 aircraft.
Embraer has also enjoyed a particularly good year in terms of orders, with a net of 193 over the first nine months of the year. This has pushed the company's Embraer's firm order backlog - it was 490 aircraft, comprising 200 E175s (all bar five of which are with US airlines), 37 E190-E2s and 253 E195-E2s
This is highest Embraer's commercial aircraft backlog has been in a decade, both in terms of orders and book value. It is also equivalent to around six years of production at current rates.
A recovery taking shape, but still finding its balance
As 2025 draws to a close, the global aircraft manufacturing landscape is beginning to look more stable - but hardly settled.
Airbus is positioned for a powerful year-end finish, supported by improving engine flows and incremental capacity coming online across its global assembly network.
Its challenge now is not demand but execution: sustaining a disciplined ramp-up while avoiding the pitfalls that have accompanied past periods of aggressive growth.
Boeing, by contrast, remains in the middle of an industrial reset. Regulatory scrutiny, quality lapses, labour unrest and ongoing supplier restructuring continue to shape its recovery trajectory.
The FAA's gradual restoration of certification privileges and the long-overdue recapitalisation of Spirit AeroSystems mark important turning points, yet the company must still demonstrate that its manufacturing culture is genuinely shifting toward long term operational resilience.
Beyond the big two, Embraer's performance is becoming increasingly difficult to overlook.
With a decade-high backlog and steady delivery growth, the Brazilian OEM is quietly emerging as one of the industry's most reliable suppliers, during a period when airlines value certainty above all else.
Its success highlights a broader truth: the aviation ecosystem's recovery will not be led solely by its giants.
Ultimately, 2025 is shaping up as a year of progress - measured, uneven and hard-won - but progress nonetheless, laying the groundwork for a more balanced and predictable production environment in the years ahead.