CAPA - Centre for Aviation logo

CAPA - Centre for Aviation

  • Type: Informa

Trump targets Washington Dulles: Big promises, bigger balance sheets required

Posted

The US president Donald Trump likes good news (especially if it involves him).

And there's nothing more likely to win him kudos on the streets of Washington D.C., where he isn't particularly popular with the local residents, than fixing the US capital's main international airport, Dulles, which has numerous problems that need attention.

The president has ordered the Department of Transportation to submit an RFI for proposals and public-private partnership (P3) plans from developers, architects and engineers to construct new terminals and concourses at Washington Dulles International Airport.A

He, and it, specifically seek private sector co-operation on these matters through P3s, as they have been the most effective method of building new airport infrastructure in recent years. Airport privatisation by lease has gone off the boil, perhaps never to rekindle. (During the president's first term he set out to privatise the two Washington airports - but that fell flat).

The question is, to what extent will the private sector come on board; and if so, who exactly?

Although there are highly capable US companies in this field, the greatest experience of providing privatised infrastructure in this sector is to be found elsewhere, and there are almost certain to be foreign companies that were queuing up for the St Louis Lambert Airport lease in 2018 that will see another opportunity begging.

This report considers the current status of Dulles, its future traffic forecasts, its charging regime, the quality of existing infrastructure, and which organisations might be tempted to come on board.

Summary

  • The US Department of Transportation, at President Trump's direction, has issued a request for information (RFI) seeking private sector proposals and public-private partnership (P3) plans to redevelop Washington Dulles International Airport's terminals and concourses.
  • Dulles faces significant operational and infrastructure challenges, including outdated people movers, sprawling layout, ageing facilities, and accessibility issues, despite recent improvements like the AeroTrain and Silver Line Metro extension.
  • The airport is already undergoing a USD 7 billion capital improvement programme, including a new 14-gate Concourse E for United Airlines, with further expansion and modernisation outlined in a recently updated master plan.
  • Passenger traffic at Dulles is projected to grow by over 30% by 2030, but these forecasts may be optimistic given historical growth rates and recent post-pandemic recovery trends.
  • The success of the federal initiative depends on the willingness of both US and international private sector partners to participate, with experienced P3 firms such as Vantage Group, Ferrovial, and others likely to be considered.
  • There is scepticism about whether the federal push represents substantive change or political showboating, as many planned improvements are already underway, and the ultimate impact will depend on private sector and airline engagement.

US DoT, at the behest of the president, submits RFI aimed at attracting the private sector to rebuild Washington Dulles Airport

The US Department of Transportation (DoT) has submitted a request for information (RFI) for proposals and public-private partnership plans from developers, architects, and engineers to construct new terminals and concourses at Washington Dulles International Airport.

In some quarters it is being referred to as "a new international gateway airport for the National Capital Region", although it is extremely unlikely to be an entirely new greenfield airport; existing facilities will very much remain in use.

Dulles is one of three airports serving the Washington-Baltimore conurbation - the main international one, and marginally the busiest ahead of the almost exclusively domestic Ronald Reagan National Airport and Baltimore-Washington Airport (the three were almost exactly the same size by passenger numbers in 2024).

The DoT said it plans to collaborate with the Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority (MWAA) to implement improved designs and transform the airport.

The president previously floated the idea of privatising the Dulles and Reagan airports

The initiative seems to have emanated initially from the president, who, in his first administration (2016-2020), quickly floated the idea of fully privatising the Dulles and Reagan airports.

Nothing came of that apart from objections, partly on security grounds, and in any case full privatisation by lease for terminals and other infrastructure in the US has fallen out of fashion, in favour of public-private partnerships (PPP or P3).

The last RFP was in 2018 for St Louis Lambert International Airport, but the lease offer was withdrawn for political reasons, despite having attracted almost 20 solo or consortium bidders (many of them international organisations).

Dulles escaped the president's 2015 jibe about 'Third World' airports, but it does have its problems

In this instance the president said (in his usual flamboyant style) that his administration was "going to rebuild" Washington Dulles International Airport, which actually was not one of the airports that he had singled out for criticism in 2015 (which were the three main New York airports and Los Angeles International, which he described as being of 'Third World' standard).

All of those airports have been dramatically improved since, or are being improved right now; a notable example being New York's LaGuardia Airport, whose renovations by way of two separate P3s is being held up as an exemplar of public-private cooperation.

Nevertheless Dulles has had its problems, and the president has more recently remarked that "It's not a good airport at all", followed by the inevitable: "It's a terrible airport."

Operating for 60 years, and the first US airport built to handle jet aircraft, Dulles has habitually made it onto worst airport lists.

It does have some things going for it - such as four runways, all but one of which is 3,000m or more (and the fourth is only just short of that measure), which are welcoming to long range jets (Dulles has 40% international seat capacity).

But its distance out of town - 26 miles (42 km) - doesn't help.

Location of Dulles International Airport, Washington D.C.

Source: Google Maps.

The ancient 'People Movers' don't move very well

The major gripe, though, is with the people movers that are used to ferry passengers between gates and planes.

These aren't travellators, moving walkways or driverless trains (as often used at airports), but mobile lounges - large buses elevated on hydraulics - originally designed by a consortium of passenger car builders (Chrysler) and a railway carriage manufacturer - they have been likened to 'moon rovers'.

Dulles intended to retain them for the next 15 to 20 years at a cost of USD160 million.

One of them was recently involved in a crash, with numerous passenger injuries, and thus became a hot topic of discussion at one of the president's cabinet meetings. Other incidents have happened in the past - including one involving a Southwest Airlines ramp agent who was killed in 2012, according to local media.

Although 'unique', these mobile lounges, which are still used for international flight arrivals, are often seen as inefficient and outdated compared to modern automated systems like trains or trams.

The airport has made improvements, such as introducing the AeroTrain system, an underground automated people mover system, connecting the main terminal to concourses A, B, and C with frequent, fast electric trains. But the mobile lounges are still used in certain situations, which can frustrate passengers.

Smelly fuel pervades the concourses but that is the least of the airport's worries

Other issues are with "jet fuel smell" as noted by Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy, although it is hard to see how an airport can avoid such a smell, unless and until all the aircraft are running on SAFs, which have their own odour, or hydrogen or electricity or some hybrid concoction of them.

More substantially, other concerns include:

  • Distance and Layout: The airport's layout is sprawling, with long distances between terminals and gates. This can make navigating the airport challenging, especially for passengers with tight connections or mobility issues. The aforementioned AeroTrain system helps reduce walking distances, but it does not serve all gates, leaving some passengers reliant on walking or using the mobile lounges;
  • Traffic Congestion and Accessibility: Dulles' location makes it less convenient for travellers compared to Reagan National Airport, which is closer to the city. While Washington is a smaller city than New York, Chicago and Los Angeles it attracts more visitors, usually on political business, than larger ones do. Hence traffic congestion on the roads leading to Dulles, particularly during peak hours, can make reaching the airport stressful and time-consuming;
  • Parking and Ground Transportation: parking at Dulles can be expensive, and the availability of spaces during busy travel periods is sometimes limited. Ground transportation options, such as taxis and rideshares, can be costly due to the airport's distance from the city. While the Silver Line Metro extension (a major rapid transit route in the Washington, D.C. Metro system) has improved access, it still requires additional time and effort compared to other airports;
  • Crowding and Long Wait Times: during peak travel times, Dulles can experience significant crowding, particularly at security checkpoints and immigration/customs areas. Passengers have reported long wait times for security screening and baggage claim, which can detract from the overall travel experience;
  • Limited Dining and Shopping Options: although Dulles has made efforts to improve its dining and retail offerings, some travellers feel that the options are still limited compared to other major international airports. Certain areas of the airport, especially older terminals, lack modern amenities and a variety of choices;
  • Ageing Infrastructure: parts of Dulles Airport, particularly older terminals, show signs of ageing, and are in need of modernisation. Although the airport has undergone renovations and expansions, some areas still feel dated compared to newer airports;
  • Weather-Related Delays: Dulles is susceptible to weather-related delays, particularly during winter months when snow and ice can disrupt operations. The airport's large size and layout can make de-icing and snow removal operations more time-consuming.

Airline charges may not be as daunting as they are reported to be

Dulles is also often criticised for being expensive, with (perceived) high fees for airlines, which can translate into higher ticket prices for passengers. Food, beverages, and other services within the airport are also considered pricey.

Having said that, comparing airport charges for 2024 (landing fees only) between Dulles, three major US gateways (New York JFK, Chicago O'Hare and Los Angeles International), also Boston Logan and the closest rival, Baltimore-Washington - Dulles easily came out on top across the board.

Landing Charges (USD) comparison for 2024, key airports, by aircraft type

Source: CAPA - Centre for Aviation and Air Transport Research Society.

While Dulles has many strengths, including its role as a major international gateway and its modern AeroTrain system, these faults can impact the passenger experience. Efforts have been made to address some of these issues - such as the addition of the Silver Line Metro and ongoing infrastructure improvements (see later) - but challenges remain; challenges that the government evidently considers to be pressing.

Built with the future in mind

Dulles was built with foresight and for the future, on what was quiet, open farmland in northern Virginia, mindful of the commercial jets that were starting to dominate the airspace and constructing what were then massive runways in anticipation of faster, bigger aircraft as the supersonic age beckoned.

Despite this, the new airport gained a reputation as a 'white elephant', with many claiming it to be a waste of taxpayer money because, since it was so far outside Washington, it was thought no one would use it.

But success eventually came, thanks to significant commercial and residential growth over the years, Dulles proving to be a convenient transport option for its expanding population.

Also US airline deregulation in 1978 allowed airlines to set up hub and spoke route networks, connecting large air hubs like Dulles to smaller cities and dramatically increasing air traffic.

United is by far the major airline

United Airlines was a leader among these airlines, and today has a massive 67% of the seat capacity - with no other airline exceeding 4%, based on CAPA - Centre for Aviation and OAG data for week commencing 15-Dec-2025.

Washington Dulles International Airport, system two-way seats, week commencing 15-Dec-2025

Source: CAPA - Centre for Aviation and OAG.

Finally, airport expansion in 1999 saw the opening of a new midfield concourse terminal that increased capacity.

Current and already planned for projects amount to more than USD7 billion

As of now, (and before the Dec-2025 US DoT submission of a request for information (RFI) for proposals and public-private partnership plans from developers, architects and engineers to construct new terminals and concourses at Dulles), and according to the CAPA Airport Construction Database, the major project at Dulles was the 435,000sqft 14-gate Concourse E which will be occupied entirely by United Airlines and will have direct access to the AeroTrain underground rail system.

Construction began in 2024, and is scheduled for completion and opening in autumn 2026.

The value of this and other existing projects at Dulles amounts to USD7 billion - which is no small beer.

It is considered to be a cornerstone of Dulles' expansion.

Moreover, in Jul-2025, MWAA board of directors approved a significant update to the airport's master plan. The updated plan accounts for accelerated growth in passenger traffic at the airport fuelled by the Silver Line Metrorail service, as well as increased air service development by a larger number of serving airlines.

Passenger traffic anticipated to rise by 30% in the next five years, but is that feasible?

The airport's passenger traffic is projected to grow by more than 30% by 2030, compared to 2024 figures, with projected growth to 38 million passengers by 2040.

That growth projection is considerably greater than that experienced in the five years before the COVID-19 pandemic (2014 - 2019), when compound growth was 15% in that period.

However, Dulles bounced back impressively from the pandemic, with growth rates of 80% in 2021; 42% in 2022; 17.6% in 2023; 8% in 2024 and the same in 9M2025.

One assumes MWAA believes an annual 8% growth rate will persist through to 2030, but that would be a surprising outcome.

Washington Dulles International Airport annual traffic: passenger numbers 2014 - 9M2025

Source: CAPA - Centre for Aviation and Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority.

The plan's time horizon extends through 2039, and provides a comprehensive vision for future airport facilities including:

  • New concourses organised in existing and additional 'tiers';
  • Main Terminal expansion and connector to concourses A and B (Tier 1);
  • New parking garages accessible from the main terminal;
  • Consolidated rental car facility within a new garage structure;
  • Expanded aircraft aprons and taxiways;
  • A fifth runway;
  • Fuel farm expansion;
  • Land for non-aeronautical development adjacent to 'Autopilot Drive'.

The process of updating the master plan started in 2020, with the board-approved plan to be sent to the US FAA for concurrence.

Political showboating? Never!

Many of these projects (apart from the fifth runway, and one has to wonder why that is necessary for an airport that doesn't yet handle 30mppa) are suitable for, and appropriate to, public-private partnership deals, and are similar in nature to others that exist already at major US airports.

So one has to ask the question, what exactly do the government administration's "proposals" ("we're going to rebuild Dulles") bring to the table that isn't there already?

Is this merely another case of political showboating?

The next moves lie with the private sector and the airlines

So what will actually happen now?

Transportation Secretary Duffy confirmed that the DoT would seek bids to replace the aforementioned shuttle vehicle system at the airport. MWAA welcomed the US government's interest in improving the airport, adding: "We want to build on the existing capital plan for Dulles, which is under way with the new concourse under construction, and expected to open next fall {autumn}".

Separately, United Airlines and MWAA announced a USD500 million investment for the new Concourse E, with funding from United, MWAA, and federal grants.

Formally, the Secretary is inviting proposals and public-private partnership plans from "the best and brightest developers, architects, and engineers to construct completely new terminals and concourses at IAD. These structures would replace or build on the existing main terminal and satellite concourses at IAD".

One assumes that the Secretary understands that "the best" in these fields may not be US companies; in fact, they probably aren't.

Once the DoT receives proposals under the RFI, it will share them with MWAA and "work closely with the airport authority to implement improved designs and transform Washington Dulles International Airport into a 'world class facility'".

Beyond that, there is little clarity other than the president's statement that he is "going to rebuild" the airport.

Starting to knock down old terminals before new ones are up and running satisfactorily is not a good idea, and the trend globally in recent times has been for progressive, selective terminal upgrades rather than assuming growth will be exponential or even linear, and putting all the eggs in one basket.

The period 2020-2023 provided plenty of evidence to support that mantra.

Much of this is likely tied to what has become a fixation for the president to "make DC safe and beautiful". This has included deploying the National Guard to assist the police in reducing the violent crime, together with homelessness, while cleaning up green spaces and public buildings like the main rail terminus in Washington, Union Station.

Get out of the way; 'Light - we're moving at the speed of Trump'

But Secretary Duffy adds: "why stop there?"

"Tourists, world leaders and CEOs from around the world should not be forced to travel through an inefficient airport when they visit D.C."

"Dulles needs a complete refresh to assume its proper role as the premier international gateway into the capital of the greatest country in the world. We're engaging the private sector to explore how we can do this cost effectively and at the speed of Trump (sic)."

Will the private sector come on board, and to what degree?

The question is: will that private sector respond at the 'speed of Trump', or indeed at all?

Both US and international companies that have worked on public-private airport projects in cities such as New York, Los Angeles, Boston and Miami have done so with airport authorities that actively sought to do so; not those that had it forced on them by the federal government, and at the behest of the president.

In MWAA's favour, it must be pointed out that it has already worked with the private sector on projects such as the Dulles Metrorail Project (Silver Line Extension); terminal and concourse upgrades at both Dulles and Reagan National Airports; and the 'Project Journey' at Reagan National Airport (a USD1 billion initiative including the construction of new security checkpoints and a new concourse to replace Gate 35X), as well as various capital improvement projects, including runway rehabilitation, terminal upgrades, and parking facility expansions.

However, these appear to have been construction rather than investment contracts and the level of investment required under 'Plan Trump' will likely be high - in excess of the USD7 billion, under the existing master plan.

Companies with prior experience in the US will top the list of potential partners

Which organisations might be tempted? Looking first to US and Canadian ones:

A logical place to start would be New York, with two consortiums responsible for P3 activity at J F Kennedy and LaGuardia airports (a P3 may also be employed this coming year at Newark Airport).

LaGuardia Gateway Partners (LGP) is the private manager and developer of the new, USD5.1 billion LaGuardia Airport Terminal B.

LGP is now composed of Canada's Vantage Group and the Luxembourg-based Meridiam Infrastructure Fund for development and equity investment with Vantage Group leading the terminal management. The project finished on time, and on budget. In 2023 and 2025 the terminal earned a 5-star rating from Skytrax, the first terminal in North America to achieve this honour.

LaGuardia was the airport most identified by the president as being 'Third World' in 2015.

At JFK numerous private sector companies are, or have been, involved in P3 deals, including JFK International Air Terminal LLC (JFKIAT) - a subsidiary of the Schiphol Group, and which manages Terminal 4 where it is involved in expanding and upgrading the infrastructure - and LCOR Inc., which played a role in the USD3 billion Terminal 4/Delta expansion project.

The most significant consortium, however, is JFK Millennium Partners (JMP), the one responsible for the USD4.2 billion redevelopment of Terminal 6. Its members include: American Triple I, a certified minority-owned infrastructure investor and developer, and RXR, a New York-based real estate investor and developer.

The most prominent one again is Vancouver-based Vantage Group, which must be in the running for involvement in one way or another at Dulles.

Also, 'New Terminal One' at JFK, a coalition of airlines, labour, minority- and woman-owned businesses and operating and financial partners initially including The Carlyle Group, together with its dedicated airport platform, CAG Holdings, JLC Infrastructure, Ullico, and Munich Airport International which will construct and operate a 2.4 million sqft terminal there to be completed in full by 2030.

Latterly Grupo Ferrovial acquired 96% of The Carlyle Global Infrastructure Fund's 51% stake in New Terminal One to become the lead partner.

The airlines can play a big part, but United seems to be hedging its bets

Not forgetting the airlines.

The other big project at LaGuardia over the last five years or so is by Delta Air Lines, which invested USD4 billion in the redevelopment of Terminal C and D into a single state-of-the-art terminal.

Delta has also invested at J F Kennedy Airport to expand and modernise Terminal 4 in a USD3.9 billion project, including new gates, expanded concourses, and upgraded facilities.

It has also made major investments at Los Angeles International, Seattle Tacoma, Salt Lake City, Atlanta, Boston Logan, Minneapolis-St Paul, and Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County airports.

However, Delta is scarcely represented at Dulles.

United Airlines, which very much is, has made investments in at least nine of its hubs, including Dulles, but in that case only in upgrades to lounges and gate areas and enhancements to operational facilities to support international flights.

Elsewhere, though, it has invested more heavily as a part of consortiums at Chicago O'Hare, Newark Liberty and Denver airports to enhance redevelopment.

It is possible that United may come under some pressure to participate in the president's plan at Washington, even if it is hesitant to do so.

United released a statement in the wake of the comments from the administration stating: "We look forward to working with president Trump, Secretary Duffy, and FAA Administrator Bedford to continue to enhance the airport's infrastructure and operations in a meaningful and cost-effective way for the benefit of our customers and employees".

That might be regarded as a somewhat non-committal statement. It certainly doesn't commit to investing billions of dollars in Dulles.

The class of 2018 at St Louis are unlikely to have lost interest in US airports, but few of them are P3 specialists

As for international companies, one could do worse than to consider those that prepared bids for the St Louis airport lease in 2018. There were many of them and there is no obvious reason why they should be less keen now to invest in US airport assets.

They were (international bidders in bold):

None of them are immediately recognisable as P3 investors in specific projects, rather than full airport lease investors that have nowhere to go in the US right now.

The Canadian pension funds have now largely dropped out, are disposing of their assets in Europe, and look set to focus on opportunities in Canada where they are being encouraged to do so.

GIP, ASUR are identifiable potential candidates, Schiphol Group and MAG at a pinch, Vantage has history while Ferrovial is a good outside bet

Global Infrastructure Partners, now the infrastructure arm of BlackRock, has been refocusing on the US, but is a whole airport investor rather than in individual standalone projects.

Mexico's ASUR has recently expanded its portfolio enormously by agreeing to take over Motiva's airports in Brazil and the Caribbean, making it the largest operator in Latin America, once the deal is concluded. It is in expansionist mode.

Royal Schiphol Group already operates a terminal at New York JFK Airport.

An outside bet might be the UK's MAG and its 35% owner IFM Investors, which between them blow hot and cold on foreign investment, but which have previously bid for the Chicago Midway Airport lease as well as for St Louis. Manchester Airport is in the throes of finally delivering its GBP1.3 billion T2 expansion at just the right time to present to the MWAA, DoT and the president's plan, as well as the kudos it would engender in the US, where it operates in-terminal attractions at several airports.

But the one organisation that is not listed here that might surprise everyone is Ferrovial, which walked away from London Heathrow Airport this year and has several times stated, and as recently as Dec-2025, that the company sees "opportunities" for investment in US airports, beyond the company's involvement in the New Terminal One project at New York JFK.

Ferrovial's CEO said, "When you see the (US) airports some of them need expansion, some of them need refurbishment, and I think that working with private partners like us will help to accelerate and to have a better service to customers".

An unpredictable president but one likely to get his moniker on the airport one day

That seems to be everything that the US president's plan is looking for.

The only negative is that Ferrovial was the lead in the Great Hall Partners consortium to renovate the Jeppesen Terminal at Denver Airport in 2018, a 34-year design-build-finance-operate-maintain P3 concession, and a project that was terminated by the airport in 2019 due to technical issues - it could be a case of once bitten, twice shy.

In conclusion, one must not read too much into this yet. The US president is well known by now for his wild swings of opinion, and a hot topic this week might well be as cold as an industrial freezer the next.

A better understanding will be evident once the first responses from the private sector start to come in; whether they hint at small scale modular improvements or wholesale rebuilding.

Until then, the most pressing question is when will Dulles be renamed Donald J Trump International?

See related CAPA - Centre for Aviation report from Aug-2022: Airport names and political intrigue in the United States of America.

Technical Addendum

The US DoT holds Dulles' property title.

In 1987, the Secretary of Transportation and the Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority (MWAA) executed a lease for Reagan National Airport and Washington Dulles International Airport and the surrounding properties.

In Apr-2024 the DoT signed a lease extension to 2100. The Metropolitan Washington Airports Act of 1986 authorised the lease in order to transfer operating responsibility for Reagan National and Dulles Airport to MWAA, which is a public body created by an interstate compact between the Commonwealth of Virginia and the District of Columbia.

Congress granted MWAA broad control over the airport, giving it authority "to acquire, maintain, improve, operate, protect, and promote the Metropolitan Washington Airports for public purposes".

Share this post