Video of the week: How airline CEOs are rewriting the playbook for volatility

At the CAPA Airline Leader Summit - World in Dec-2025, a rare, candid boardroom-style conversation brought together airline leaders operating at the sharp end of today's volatility cycle.

Moderated by WestJet Vice Chairman Alex Cruz, the discussion featured Anko van der Werff (SAS Scandinavian Airlines), Martin Gauss (Gulf Air) and Campbell Wilson (Air India), each navigating markedly different geographies yet confronting strikingly similar structural pressures.

The backdrop is unforgiving: slowing global growth, persistently high interest rates, elevated fuel and financing costs, currency instability and deepening geopolitical fragmentation. Layered on top are acute supply chain constraints - from delayed aircraft deliveries to extended engine shop visits - that continue to cap growth and inflate unit costs.

Against this landscape, the panel explored how airlines with traditionally thin margins can protect balance sheets, sustain networks and retain strategic optionality.

Drawing on current, real-world challenges, the session examined fuel and FX risk management in an era of amplified price swings; inflationary pressures across labour, maintenance and airport charges; and the emerging reality that geopolitics increasingly shapes network economics.

The executives also addressed the growing divergence between mature markets facing demand fragility and emerging markets - most notably South Asia and parts of the Middle East - where structural growth remains intact but operational and political risks are higher.

This session offers senior aviation leaders a grounded, experience-led perspective on how airline CEOs are recalibrating long-term planning, capital allocation and fleet utilisation to survive - and selectively invest - through a prolonged period of uncertainty.

Summary

• Airline leaders at the CAPA Airline Leader Summit - World discussed how volatility and high costs have become defining features of the industry, not just temporary disruptions.
• Persistent challenges include slowing global growth, high interest rates, elevated fuel and financing costs, currency instability, and deepening geopolitical fragmentation.
• Supply chain constraints, such as delayed aircraft deliveries and engine maintenance issues, are limiting growth and increasing unit costs for airlines worldwide.
• Executives emphasised the need for dynamic risk management strategies, especially regarding fuel and foreign exchange hedging, to cope with amplified price swings.
• Inflationary pressures on labour, maintenance, airport charges, and financing have reset cost structures higher, making capital discipline and fleet flexibility critical.
• Emerging markets like India and the Middle East offer growth opportunities, but also present infrastructure, regulatory, and geopolitical risks that require careful capacity and partnership strategies.
• Watch EXCLUSIVE CAPA TV video of session recorded in Lisbon in Dec-2025.

Boardroom Conversation - dealing with volatility in a high-cost environment

Volatility is no longer cyclical noise for airlines; it has become a defining operating condition.

The CAPA Airline Leader Summit - World panel on "Dealing with volatility in a high-cost environment" confronted this reality head-on, bringing together CEOs who are actively managing through cost inflation, geopolitical disruption and constrained supply.

Moderated by Alex Cruz, the discussion set the tone early: the traditional assumption of steady post-crisis normalisation has given way to a far more complex outlook.

While travel demand has proven resilient in pockets, consumer confidence remains fragile, particularly in Europe, and cost escalation continues to outpace revenue growth.

Elevated fuel prices - exacerbated by Middle East tensions and longer routings caused by airspace restrictions - were cited as a reminder that energy risk has returned as a central strategic concern, not a background variable.

Fuel and foreign exchange hedging, once seen as tactical tools, are now being reassessed for strategic relevance. Panellists noted that extreme price swings and currency mismatches - especially for airlines with dollar-denominated costs and local-currency revenues - require a more dynamic, scenario-based approach rather than rigid hedging bands.

The conversation reflected a broader industry shift toward resilience over optimisation.

Inflationary pressure beyond fuel was a recurring theme. Labour costs, aircraft maintenance, airport charges and financing expenses have all structurally reset higher.

With interest rates remaining elevated, capital discipline has become paramount. CEOs described a renewed focus on return thresholds, fleet flexibility and partnership models as ways to preserve optionality without overcommitting balance sheets.

Geopolitical fragmentation emerged as a critical strategic variable. From sanctions and airspace closures to shifting trade and visa policies, politics is increasingly shaping network viability.

The panel explored whether this signals a more permanent realignment of global networks, with some long-haul markets becoming structurally less attractive while others - particularly those aligned with regional trade and labour flows - gain prominence.

Emerging markets featured prominently in the discussion, especially India and parts of the Middle East, where demand growth remains robust.

However, the executives were clear-eyed about the risks: infrastructure constraints, regulatory unpredictability and geopolitical exposure require disciplined capacity deployment and strong local partnerships. Growth, they argued, must be earned and not assumed.

Finally, supply chain disruption framed much of the operational debate. Delayed aircraft deliveries, engine availability issues and extended overhaul timelines are forcing airlines to extract maximum value from existing fleets. Higher utilisation, selective life extensions and creative fleet planning have become necessities rather than stopgaps.

This CAPA TV video provides a pragmatic lens on how airline leaders are adjusting strategy, risk management and capital allocation in a world where volatility is not an exception, but the baseline.

CAPA TV video of panel session from the CAPA Airline Leader Summit - World, recorded in Lisbon in Dec-2025: https://centreforaviation.com/analysis/video/boardroom-conversation--dealing-with-volatility-in-a-high-cost-environment-2339