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CAPA - Centre for Aviation

  • Type: Informa

Video of the week: Breaking bottlenecks - closing the soaring demand and constrained supply gap

Aviation demand has rebounded faster and more structurally than many expected, yet the industry's ability to respond remains constrained by two stubborn bottlenecks: aircraft availability and infrastructure capacity.

This CAPA Airline Leader Summit - World session brought together senior leaders from airports, regulators, ANSPs, airlines, finance and advanced air mobility to examine how these imbalances can be addressed before they hard-wire inefficiency into the next growth cycle. The discussion ranged from OEM delivery delays and MRO capacity shortages to uneven airport investment and air traffic management fragility.

Aircraft supply remains constrained by ongoing supply chain disruptions, engine durability issues and production discipline challenges at the major manufacturers, leaving airlines unable to fully capitalise on strong passenger demand.

At the same time, airports and ATC systems are diverging sharply: while markets such as the Middle EastIndia and parts of Southeast Asia are expanding aggressively, others in Europe and mature economies are grappling with runway limits, staffing shortages, regulatory complexity and political resistance to growth.

Panellists highlighted that the issue is no longer simply one of funding, but of governance, regulation and strategic alignment.

The session underscored the need for cost-effective infrastructure, smarter regulation, realistic sustainability pathways and closer coordination across the aviation ecosystem.

With demand expected to remain resilient through the second half of the decade, the debate made clear that without decisive action, capacity constraints risk becoming a permanent drag on economic and aviation growth.

Summary

  • Aviation demand has rebounded strongly, but supply is constrained by aircraft availability and infrastructure bottlenecks.
  • Aircraft manufacturers face ongoing delivery delays due to supply chain disruptions, engine issues, and labour shortages, limiting airline capacity growth.
  • Airports in growth markets are expanding aggressively, while those in Europe and mature economies struggle with regulatory, political, and physical constraints.
  • Air traffic management systems, especially in Europe, are hampered by staffing shortages, fragmented airspace, and delayed modernisation.
  • Regulation and governance, rather than funding alone, are now the main barriers to efficient infrastructure development and capacity expansion.
  • Coordinated action across airlines, airports, regulators, and technology providers is essential to prevent capacity constraints from permanently limiting aviation growth.
  • Watch EXCLUSIVE CAPA TV video of session recorded in Lisbon in Dec-2025.

Capacity and infrastructure - how can the imbalances between supply and demand be addressed?

The CAPA Airline Leader Summit - World session on capacity and infrastructure captured a defining challenge for global aviation: demand is no longer the problem, but supply increasingly is.

As respected former airline executive and currently Dooks Capital, Chairman, Peter Bellew, framed in his moderation, growth is being "held captive" by constraints that sit largely outside the control of airlines themselves.

On the aircraft side, the panel acknowledged that OEM performance remains a critical pressure point. Delivery delays at both Airbus and Boeing have persisted into 2025, exacerbated by fragile supply chains, labour shortages and ongoing technical issues such as the geared turbofan engine inspections that have grounded hundreds of A320neo-family aircraft worldwide.

For airlines, this has translated into forced capacity discipline, extended aircraft leases and higher operating costs.

MRO providers, meanwhile, are struggling to scale fast enough, with long shop visit times and parts shortages further limiting fleet availability.

Infrastructure capacity presents an equally uneven picture. Dubai Airports CEO, Paul Griffiths, highlighted how airports in growth-oriented markets are pushing ahead with expansion programmes, using long-term planning, streamlined regulation and decisive political backing to add runways, terminals and digital capability.

In contrast, parts of Europe continue to wrestle with capped capacity, delayed projects and regulatory friction. London Heathrow's ongoing runway impasse and Amsterdam Schiphol's politically driven capacity constraints were cited as emblematic of how policy uncertainty can suppress connectivity and economic value.

From an air traffic management perspective, Eurocontrol's Head of Strategy, Engagement and Institutional Relations, Predrag Vranjkovic, pointed to staffing shortages, fragmented airspace and delayed modernisation as systemic weaknesses.

Even where physical airport capacity exists, ATC constraints and network disruption can quickly erode available slots, as seen during recent summer seasons across Europe.

Michael Stanton-Geddes, ACI EUR's Director Economics & Competition, emphasised that regulation must evolve to support growth rather than unintentionally restrict it.

Economic oversight, environmental policy and consumer protection frameworks need to be proportionate, predictable and aligned with long-term capacity objectives. Without this, infrastructure investment becomes slower, riskier and more expensive.

Looking ahead, Electra Aero, VP Commercial Programs, Diana Siegel, introduced the role that new aircraft technologies, including hybrid-electric and short take-off and landing concepts, could play in selectively easing capacity constraints - particularly at secondary airports - though she cautioned these are complements, not substitutes, for core infrastructure investment.

Former Kenya Airways CEO Allan Kilavuka grounded the discussion in the realities of emerging markets, where demand growth is strong but access to capital, regulatory consistency and infrastructure delivery often lag.

His message was clear: global aviation growth will increasingly depend on how effectively these markets can build scalable, affordable capacity.

The session concluded with a shared recognition that aviation's capacity challenge is solvable - but only through coordinated action. Aircraft supply, airport infrastructure, ATC modernisation and regulation must move in step. Without that alignment, the industry risks entering a decade defined not by opportunity, but by constraint.

View video: https://centreforaviation.com/analysis/video/capacity-and-infrastructure--how-can-the-imbalances-between-supply-and-demand-be-addressed-2341