Europe's air traffic fell in Apr-26; exploring some of the many reasons

Posted 18/06/2026 13:36

ACI Europe, the organisation representing airports on that continent, has released statistics that show a 0.7% overall decline in passenger numbers in Apr-2026 as the 'revenge travel' boom peters out in the face of economic and logistical challenges.

It is the first monthly downturn to be recorded since the COVID-19 pandemic, and should set alarm bells ringing.

However it is only a relatively minor decline, most evident in a number of small countries such as Iceland and Cyprus, while inherent problems persist notably in Germany and the UK.

But it does mean that May-2026's figures will be awaited intently.

It is also worrying that, after a strong start to the year in the cargo segment, those gains have been wiped out by two successive bad months. It is often the case that a downturn in that segment is followed by one in the passenger segment.

For now ACI Europe's ire is directed mainly at the European Entry Scheme, the biometric ID process for non-Schengen visitors introduced on 10-Apr-2026, and which has caused delayed and missed flights across Europe, as well as queues that could be as long as six hours this summer.

It is precisely what the air travel business does not need right now.

Summary

ACI Europe reports European airport passenger traffic fell 0.7% YoY in Apr-2026, the first monthly decline since the post-COVID recovery began in Apr-2021.
The downturn is attributed to a mix of geopolitical instability, economic pressures, and the fading of “revenge travel,” with May-2026 figures now a key watchpoint.
EU airports still grew (+1.4% YoY), while Non‑EU+ airports fell sharply (-7.6%), driven largely by Israel’s collapse (-73.4%) and broader regional conflict impacts.
Country performance diverged: Spain (+3.7%) and Italy (+2.2%) grew, while Germany (-8.5%) and the UK (-2.1%) declined, with Munich (-16.4%) and Frankfurt (-11%) hit by high operating costs.
The Schengen Entry/Exit System rollout from 10-Apr-2026 is causing major border delays, missed flights, and potential multi-hour queues, prompting calls for flexibility or suspension.
Air cargo fell 5.3% in Apr-2026 after earlier gains, wiping out year-to-date momentum and raising concern because cargo weakness often precedes passenger softening.

ACI Europe report reveals -0.7% decline in overall passenger traffic in Apr-2026

ACI Europe reports that passenger traffic across the European airport network overall decreased by 0.7% year-on-year in Apr-2026, marking the first decline since Europe's air transport recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic began in Apr-2021.

If a week is a long time in politics, five years is an eternity in air transport.

A multitude of influential events

The decline comes amid geopolitical events such as the US / Israel - Iran / Lebanon conflict (many airlines have still not resumed some, or all, flights between Europe and the Middle East) and the Ukraine war, now in its fifth year, both of which impact on permissible air routes; political uncertainty across the world, and especially so in Europe (France, UK, Spain, Hungary etc.); turmoil in financial markets; inflation and the cost of living crisis; unemployment and the threat of AI taking jobs; the energy crisis and, if that were not enough, the post-COVID 'revenge travel' bubble finally bursting, in the light of the collective impact of all of these.

And latterly other factors have come into play, such as the potential for airlines to "cancel summer holiday flights" as the media always says (as if people travel for no other reason) due to a shortage of aviation fuel caused by military operations and reprisals in Iran, the Gulf countries and the Strait of Hormuz. While airlines try to shore up confidence with statements like "it's business as usual", you can't blame passengers for hanging fire until they see real, concrete evidence as to how all this is panning out.

See related CAPA - Centre for Aviation report: 'High prices ease jet fuel supply outlook for Europe's airlines'.

European entry/exit system is a turn-off to passengers

Also, there is the the well publicised introduction of the European border entry/exit system (EES), which has been disastrous at some airports, with long queues both at arrival and departure points for hours, and many people missing flights.

The World Travel & Tourism Council stated prolonged border delays linked to the rollout of the EES could put up to 41 million visitor arrivals and USD45.4 billion in visitor spending at risk, potentially diverting travellers to competing destinations outside Europe.

To the average European, the prospect of driving or even taking a train to a vacation destination right now is more enticing than ever, as is the option simply to stay at home.

Numbers were at least up on 2019

Looking in detail at ACI Europe's findings, what it calls 'performance highlights' they include:

Total passenger numbers were down by 0.7% in Apr-2026 compared to the previous year, although they were +6.5% on 2019, which shows how much the industry had previously recovered.

That result was not influenced excessively by the date of Easter, which was in April in both 2025 and 2026, although it was at the beginning of the month in 2026, which would have had an impact on outbound travel, pushing some of it into March.

Summary of airport passenger traffic: Apr-2026 versus 2025 and Apr-2026 versus 2019

Source: ACI Europe.

Apart from the reduction in passenger numbers, movements were also down by 0.8%, and they decreased by 0.2% compared to 2019.

Non-EU+ airports suffered the biggest falls

Airports in the EU member countries (EU Airports) fared the best, with a 1.4% increase compared to 2025 and +8.8% compared to 2019.

When the EEA countries (Iceland, Norway, Liechtenstein), also Switzerland and the United Kingdom, are added (EU+ airports), the increase fell to +0.6%, and +6.8% versus 2019.

The Non-EU+ airports category (all other countries within the broader geographical European region (e.g. Türkiye, Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and the Russian Federation) produced the most negative result, falling by -7.6% compared to 2025 and growing by 4.9% compared to 2019.

This category encompasses airports in countries outside the EU+ market, including: Albania; Armenia; Belarus; Bosnia & Herzegovina; Georgia; Israel; Kazakhstan; Kosovo; North Macedonia; Moldova; Montenegro; Russia; Serbia; Turkey; Ukraine; and Uzbekistan.

EU airports recorded the best overall result, reporting an increase of 1.4% year-on-year, with airports in smaller states like Slovakia (+125.2%), Slovenia (+14.6%), Estonia (+12.1%), and Malta (+13.5%), also Poland (+8.3%) among the best performers.

However, airports in Cyprus (-16.1%), Iceland (-11.7%), Austria (-7.4%) and Switzerland (-6.1%) reported notable decreases.

A plateau in the number of visitors to Iceland is of concern, but is it the real problem?

Two of those countries are EU+ airport countries, outside the European Union. Iceland has been identified previously by CAPA - Centre for Aviation as a red flag for the industry generally, although the reasons for this decline are many.

With Iceland having a population of less than 400,000, and even though the national propensity to travel is high, the country's economy is abnormally reliant on inbound tourism, and transit traffic between Europe and North America.

Visitors haven't stopped coming, but their number has plateaued after the post-COVID boom - to 2.25 million in 2025 (-0.4%), well below a 2018 peak, and the first time that has happened both pre- and post-pandemic, with the exception of 2019.

The first four months of 2026 witnessed a +1.5% increase overall, but the almost 12% drop in Apr-2026 must be of concern, even allowing for Easter being in the first week of the month.

April is a 'shoulder' season, where several factors can influence tourist arrivals anyway, but here the decisive ones appear to have been:

Reduced flight availability following the collapse of budget airline 'Play' in 2025. That was only -4% but even that level can be telling;
A lingering cost-of-living squeeze in major markets, like the UK, and reduced spending by North American travellers.

Iceland: annual international seats capacity, 2012 to 2026

Source: CAPA - Centre for Aviation and OAG.

Equally, and while Iceland remains a relatively expensive tourist destination, tourist numbers were slightly up overall (+1.7%) in Apr-2026, including in the two key markets mentioned above, suggesting that the problem is more with ex-Iceland travel and transit travel to and from the US.

Iceland has been such a 'boom' market for tourism for 15 years, and now the May-2026 air passenger figures will be awaited with some trepidation, but ultimately geopolitical factors elsewhere might prove to be a bigger influence on those numbers than tourism costs or the series of volcanic eruptions close to the capital, Reykjavik, that have taken place over recent years.

Cyprus is too close to the 'action' in the Middle East

And it is geopolitical influences that have come to weigh most heavily on Cyprus, which suffered an even greater fall in passenger numbers in Apr-2026, prompting one prominent British newspaper to headline "Panic in Cyprus as tourists abandon island".

In this case it is tourism that has taken a hammer blow. Cyprus' tourism revenue had already fallen in Mar-2026, dropping by 33.8% year-on-year. That figure, together with the drop in air passengers, shows the impact of the conflict in the Middle East, which has caused huge problems for it and neighbouring regions, with war spilling over to multiple countries.

Specifically, the British military base at Akrotiri, close to Limassol and on the road to Paphos, the island's second busiest airport and a major resort, was struck by a drone in Mar-2026, fired from Lebanon rather than Iran - others were shot down - and prompting calls within Cyprus for the two UK military bases that have been there since 1960 to be closed.

At the same time, those calls sent out a subliminal message, whether or not intended, that British nationals are not as welcome as they have been previously, replicating a trend in Malta when it became independent from the UK in 1964.

The problem that the military bases (which are now better protected) and the tourism business alike (32% of visitors were from the UK in 2015 - down from 38% immediately after the COVID-19 pandemic) face is that even if the US/Israel-Iran war was to end tomorrow there is no guarantee that the one between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon will follow suit any time soon.

That means Cyprus would be open to any further attack that either Hezbollah or Iran considered appropriate, at any time.

A big increase in visitor numbers to Cyprus from Israel

Conversely, one of the reasons that air passenger numbers have not collapsed to the same degree as tourism numbers is perhaps that arrivals from Israel increased from 7.4% of the total in 2019 to 13% in 2025. Those are tourists but also émigrés fleeing the regular strikes on Israeli cities.

Yet another take on Israel arises out of the Non-EU+ airports, which overall reported a decrease of 7.6%. Passenger traffic at airports in Israel fell by 73.4%, by far the greatest amount in that category. Israel, and especially Tel Aviv, looks as if they will continue to be blighted by war for some time to come.

Türkiye yet to benefit from the EES saga but some southeast Europe non-EU + airports did well in Apr-2026

Big falls were also recorded in the east of the region, in Georgia (-16.3%), Azerbaijan (-12.9%) and even Türkiye (-5.1%), which could have been expected to profit from the European border entry/exit system debacle affecting airports across the southern Mediterranean. In fact, airports in Italy, Spain and Portugal all saw slight increases in the month.

Conversely, airports in North Macedonia (+30.6%), Albania (+25.3%) and Moldova (+24.6%) continue to record passenger traffic growth.

In each case, these achievements are put down to continuous investments in airport infrastructure, service improvements, marketing activities, successful cooperation with airlines and support from the Governments.

Overall country performance versus 2025

Source: ACI Europe.

Germany's high location costs still impacting on traffic, while the UK is stricken with an economic malaise

Among the largest EU markets, airports in Spain (+3.7%) and Italy (+2.2%) performed the best, while those in Germany (-8.5%), the UK (-2.1%) and France (-0.9%) saw a decrease in passenger volumes.

In the case of Germany, that figure can be attributed specifically to well documented and continuing locational issues for airlines around taxes and operational costs. In fact, Munich Airport (-16.4%) and Frankfurt Airport (-11%) reported the sharpest decreases among EU airports.

The UK is a case on its own.

Home to the continent's busiest airport, London Heathrow, the busiest congregation of city airports in the world (London) and expanding regional airports, and with traditionally high levels of travel propensity, the Apr-2026 reduction can be marked down to a combination of factors including: a stagnant economy, cost of living worries, concerns over air fuel prices and availability, and the fact that capacity to the Middle East, which has long been home to alternative travel hubs from the traditional London and Amsterdam, saw a stark reduction following the onset of conflict there in Feb-2026.

Looking at individual airport performance at the primary level, Barcelona-El Prat Josep Tarradellas Airport (+4.1%), Madrid Barajas Airport (+3.3%) and Amsterdam Schiphol Airport (+2.7%) were the only major airports recording passenger traffic growth in Apr-2026, with Munich Airport (-16.4%) and Frankfurt Airport (-11%) reporting the sharpest decreases, for the reasons outlined above.

Apart from Madrid and Barcelona, other airports in Spain, in what ACI Europe classifies as its 'Mega' category, such as Malaga (+9.5%) and Palma (+2.6%) also grew strongly.

Spain tops the rankings in most categories

Spain continues to offer the perfect combination of positive factors. Over 61% of seat capacity is on LCCs - almost 13ppts more than the Western European average, making it cheaper both to visit and to move around in. It has more short-term rental opportunities than its peers in addition to its vast range of hotels, although that may change as opposition to them grows.

The country boasts a dense network of international airports (AENA is the world's largest operator) and the world's most extensive high-speed rail network, making it highly accessible and easy to navigate.

With more than 300 days of sunshine a year and over 600 Blue Flag beaches, it remains a premier destination for coastal and 'sun and beach' holidays.

Spain is the third country globally with the most UNESCO World Heritage sites. Landmarks like the Sagrada Familia and the Alhambra offer unparalleled historical experiences.

Most importantly, recent data shows that geopolitical tensions elsewhere (e.g. the Middle East) have redirected tourists seeking safer, reliable Mediterranean options to Spain.

What's more, Spain is experiencing a notable economic boom, significantly outperforming its major European peers. Its real GDP is projected to grow between 2.1% and 2.4% - roughly three times the average rate of the wider euro area.

Overall, whatever happens elsewhere, Spain seems for the moment at least to be immune from the influences that have reduced traffic levels in other locations.

Earlier freight gains wiped out by two poor months

Freight traffic across the European airport network decreased by 5.3% in the period. This downturn was again heavily influenced by the conflict in the Middle East, as significant cargo volumes transit through Middle Eastern hubs on their way to Europe.

The freight contraction represents a more pronounced decline from earlier in the year.

While the year began with dynamic growth (+6.4% in Jan-2026 and +8.9% in Feb-2026), cargo volumes began to slip in Mar-2026, dropping by -3.1% before experiencing the steeper -5.3% drop in Apr-2026.

Such falls often foreshadow one in the passenger segment.

In conclusion, ACI Europe Director General Olivier Jankovec stated: "Geopolitical instability, most notably the war in the Middle East, is now further weighing on growth and exposing significant differences in performance across markets. The encouraging news is that demand generally remains strong, airlines capacity adjustments limited and fears over potential jet fuel shortages have eased".

Border control our major concern - ACI Europe DG Jankovec

Mr Jankovec added: "Our most immediate concern remains the severe disruptions and hardship imposed upon passengers by border control processes linked to the Schengen Entry/Exit System. Unless authorities are allowed to introduce greater flexibility, including fully suspending the system where operationally necessary, disruptions for passengers will intensify over the coming weeks and months".

This comment echoes CAPA - Centre for Aviation's call for that suspension (which was quickly enacted by Greece, but not by other countries), in Apr-2026.

It would not solve all of Europe's aviation problems, but it would at least alleviate some of them.