Aviation's sustainability journey – the decarbonisation clock is ticking louder

The year 2026 is set to be a record-breaking year for aviation. Even with the recent Middle East crisis and the operational and fuel supply disruption accompanying it, airlines are on track to break new records around passengers and aircraft kilometres flown.

Unavoidably, this also means record levels of fuel burn and greenhouse gas emissions.

The year 2026 could also be a record-breaking year for the planet. According to data from NASA, 1H2026 was the third warmest start to a year in the 177-year temperature record. Only 2024 and 2025 saw higher average surface temperatures.

Early 2H2026 has seen surface temperatures equal or break temperature records, while average ocean temperatures breached the benchmark of 1.0°C above the pre-industrial average for the first time.

These are developments that climate scientists and global bodies have been issuing dire warnings about for decades and global climate compacts were formed to avoid.

The UN warned in Aug-2026 that it is now likely global temperatures will pass 1.5°C of warming compared to the pre-industrial era, and that this threshold could be passed within the next few years.

Even best-case scenarios have warming peaking somewhere between 1.8°C and 2.0°C, with the UN warning that every fraction of a degree above 1.5°C brings with it the possibility of crossing irreversible climate thresholds and risks of "severe damage to human health, food security, water supplies, nature, cities, infrastructure, and economies".

Clearly, things are approaching crisis point.

Summary

• Aviation is on track for record passenger volumes and aircraft-kilometres in 2026, driving record fuel burn and greenhouse gas emissions.
• Global climate indicators are worsening, with 2026 among the warmest years on record and the UN warning 1.5°C warming is likely to be exceeded soon.
• Despite ICAO’s 2050 net-zero goal and CORSIA, aviation decarbonisation progress is slow and uneven amid geopolitical disruption and constrained resources.
• Policy approaches are diverging, with reduced US climate ambition under an “energy dominance” agenda and more unilateral, binding EU measures on SAF and emissions trading.
• Passengers and corporate buyers express climate concern but largely resist paying higher costs for more sustainable travel, undermining demand-side pressure.
• Sustainability must become an operating strategy, requiring coordinated action on fleet renewal, operational efficiency, scalable SAF investment, and aligned carbon schemes.

Aviation industry recognises the challenge, but progress has been slow

The industry recognises this and has been attempting to act accordingly, but progress has been frustratingly slow.

The sector set its 2050 net-zero target for international aviation under ICAO's auspices in 2022 and set a global framework for action under the 'Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA)'.

This prompted a flurry of global activity - government policy proposals and regulatory frameworks were established, national and bloc level targets were set, and individual and collective sustainability commitments were made from airlines and other industry stakeholders.

These actions promised rapid progress on sustainability and decarbonisation, but global collective action around climate change is starting to fray, thanks to reversals in domestic and international politics.

Aviation sustainability efforts appear to be ebbing as well, with ambitions meeting difficult realities around implementation of a global scale, the industry's long-term growth trajectory, the growing shadow sustainability is casting on the industry's financial health, and uneven rates of progress - thanks to the destabilising

impacts of global uncertainty and increasing geopolitical and geoeconomic confrontation

While global collaboration and solidarity around aviation sustainability remains largely unimpacted by this fragmentation, cracks are becoming apparent elsewhere.

International crises are slowing global economic growth, disrupting trade, closing borders, increasing supply chain pressures and unsettling financial markets. All of this reduces the resources that both countries and the air travel sector have to dedicate to developing climate solutions.

Global approaches to aviation sustainability are also diverging.

In North America, the Trump Administration's 'energy dominance' agenda and climate policies have aviation-specific net-zero commitments while keeping SAF ambitions intact (although with reduced support).

In Europe, the EU appears increasingly inclined to act forcefully and unilaterally; setting ambitious intermediate emissions reductions targets and binding SAF targets while considering expanding its emissions-trading scheme to near global coverage, to make up for perceived shortcomings with CORSIA.

Air transport users are failing to marry climate rhetoric to action and spending

While passengers and air transport purchasers self-report high levels of awareness and concern about aviation's emissions and other climate change impacts, only the barest minority are willing to accept the higher cost that accompanies more sustainable travel.

Individual airlines are now admitting that interim sustainability targets, set with much fanfare in recent years, are unachievable. This is primarily attributable to measures out of airlines' control - with sluggish aircraft deliveries, poor engine technology maturity, shortages of SAF and emissions credits, infrastructure bottlenecks and inadequate or sluggish policy creation all being cited and blamed.

Behind all this remains the unavoidable and persistently inconvenient fact that commercial aviation remains a growth-oriented sector. The industry's economics and strategic choices are geared towards growth: adding more passengers, flying them more distance, and expanding connectivity maximises revenue and disperses high fixed costs over more units.

Operational efficiency and sustainability are linked - improving one means improving the other - but driving down unit emissions through lower fuel burn and other gains lowers airline's costs, and allows the sector to stimulate yet more growth. Effectively, the industry cannot help but erase its own efficiency gains as it chases expansion.

Even in this era of shocks and crises, sustainability is the aviation industry's most significant external challenge. Yet as the data from this report shows, progress remains slow and uneven. And this is only being exacerbated by the industry's exposure to shifting political agendas and destabilising global events.

Unless momentum is rapidly restored, the sector's realistic window to meet carbon-neutral growth objectives and net-zero 2050 ambitions is closing fast.

Sustainability needs to become an operating strategy, not an industry aspiration

Aviation's sustainability debate has reached an uncomfortable but necessary stage. The industry no longer lacks ambition, targets or technological pathways - what it lacks is the capacity to deploy them at the scale and speed required, while continuing to operate as a commercial growth industry.

The answer is not to stop growth. Nor is it credible to assume that efficiency gains alone will neutralise the environmental consequences of ever more flying.

Aviation needs to make every available lever work harder: accelerating aircraft production and fleet renewal; improving operational efficiency; addressing the environmental consequences of changing cabin economics; and, above all, turning SAF from a policy aspiration into an investable industrial proposition.

That requires governments to provide greater certainty around mandates, incentives and infrastructure, while airlines need to provide credible demand signals through appropriately structured offtake commitments.

CORSIA and regional schemes must complement rather than fragment this framework.

The objective should be to create the conditions for low-carbon aviation to become progressively more scalable and commercially viable, rather than simply making conventional aviation more expensive.

The uncomfortable reality is that no single part of the aviation system can carry the burden. Airlines cannot decarbonise fleets they cannot obtain, or buy SAF that is not being produced.

SAF producers cannot finance billions of dollars of new capacity against uncertain future demand. Similarly, OEMs cannot rapidly replace ageing fleets while their own supply chains remain constrained. Airports and governments cannot deliver the necessary infrastructure without greater confidence that investment will be supported by long-term demand.

The strategic priority is therefore to make the aviation decarbonisation ecosystem work as a system. Fleet renewal, SAF production, airport infrastructure, airline investment and regulation need to move in the same direction, and at a sufficiently predictable pace.

The next decade will reveal whether aviation's existing targets were merely ambitious declarations or the foundation of a genuinely different industry model. Aviation has spent years debating how it will decarbonise. The harder question is whether it can continue to grow at the same pace while doing so. That is the sustainability challenge that will define the industry's next decade - and ultimately determine whether its licence to grow can keep pace with its appetite to fly.

LEARN MORE… CAPA-Envest Global Airline Sustainability State of the Industry Report 2026

• Execution, not ambition, is the bottleneck. The industry has targets and technology. What it lacks is the capacity to deploy them at scale and speed while still growing.
• Growth won't stop, and efficiency alone won't fix it. Halting aviation's expansion isn't credible, but assuming efficiency gains will offset increased flying is equally unrealistic.
• SAF must become investable, not just aspirational. It needs to shift from a policy talking point to a bankable industrial proposition.
• Governments and airlines are both waiting on each other. Governments need to provide certainty through mandates and infrastructure; airlines need to back that with credible demand via offtake commitments.
• Carbon schemes must align, not compete. CORSIA and regional schemes should work together to make low-carbon aviation more scalable, not just make flying more expensive.
• No single player can decarbonise alone. Airlines, SAF producers, OEMs, and airports are each stuck waiting on the others for fleets, fuel, capacity, and investment confidence.
• The real priority is systemic coordination. Fleet renewal, SAF production, infrastructure, investment, and regulation all need to move together in the next decade will show whether current targets are real or just declarations.

You can find out why CAPA - Centre for Aviation has made these assumptions in the 2026 edition of the CAPA-Envest Global Airline Sustainability State of the Industry Report.

The 2026 report profiles the top 100 airlines and airline groups globally by seat capacity. Alongside a broad range of aviation metrics, the dataset captures each airline's reported use of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and carbon offsets, providing insight into the progress being made, both by individual airlines and by the industry as a whole on the journey towards the 2050 net-zero goal.

For the first time, this year's report also introduces a dedicated airport sustainability assessment, profiling the top 100 airports globally. This new addition extends the benchmarking approach beyond airlines to the airports that support them, reflecting the growing recognition that meaningful progress towards net zero requires action across the full aviation value chain, not just from airlines alone.

You can download the full report with extensive data insights here: CAPA-Envest Global Airline Sustainability State of the Industry Report 2026.